Unicaja Banco will put the finishing touch this Tuesday on the annual results season of the Ibex 35 banks. The entity will be in charge of ending the sectoral accountability to the market, characterized by the large growth of balances, which has benefited of the rise in interest rates. In this case, the consensus of ‘Bloomberg’ analysts projects a profit of 302.5 million for the Malaga entity which, if confirmed, would represent an improvement of 16.1% compared to the 260 million recorded at the end of 2022.
Being above the aforementioned barrier of 300 million is relevant for Unicaja Banco, since it is a level that it has not touched since 2007, when profits of 357.7 million were recorded. On this occasion, a result similar to that of 2006 would be computed, in the midst of the real estate bubble in Spain. However, the figure has been revised downwards from the 367 million projected six months ago in a context of slowing credit demand and after a fourth quarter of 2023 that experts predict will have been “weak”, reducing visibility. For sale of cross products.
“The repricing of the credit portfolio should continue to act as support for the interest margin, compensating for a quarter that will once again be weak in terms of credit volumes, a cost of liabilities that will continue to rise although in a contained manner, and the loss of credit income due to non-remuneration of minimum reserves,” stresses Renta 4 analyst Nuria Alvarez. On this basis, it focuses on its strategy based on mortgage credit in a slowdown environment that may raise doubts about the evolution of the portfolio for 2024. Despite this, they predict that income generation will continue to be solid and will allow Compensate for both an increase in cost content and credit provisions.
With Unicaja Banco, the group of major players in the sector, which includes Banco Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Banco Sabadell and Bankinter, will have earned almost 26.4 billion, 28% more than the 20.5 billion that were recorded in the 2023 calculation. They will do so after beating market estimates and breaking records never seen before in a scenario of tailwinds in which the rise in financing costs has contributed to increasing margins.
Unicaja Banco arrives at the presentation of the accounts after a few months marked by the renewal of its leadership that was completed this Friday with the election of José Sevilla as the new non-executive president of the entity a week later than planned, as published in this medium. The former right-hand man of Goirigolzarri sounded like a favorite candidate in the pools, in which there were also names such as the former Business Director at Banco Santander, Antonio Román, and the former independent director of Unicaja Ana Bolado.
However, Seville has finally been chosen, waiting for the European Central Bank (ECB) to grant its place. The former president of Bankia will take over from Manuel Azuaga, who presented his resignation last November after completing the integration process with Liberbank. He will now work alongside Isidro Rubiales, who became CEO in September 2023, replacing Manuel Menéndez. The merger agreement between both firms contemplated a July 2023 limit for the president to cede powers to the CEO and maintain a more institutional role in order to ensure the division of powers.
With this transfer, the fifth bank by volume of assets puts an end to the governance crisis unleashed between the Asturian and Malaga blocs. After the last movement, which was already discounted, Unicaja Banco registers a flat performance on the stock market, with a modest fall of 0.56% since the start of 2024. Last year, its first full year within the Ibex 35, it was the ban value carioca with the worst evolution recorded (-13.7%).
At the close of the stock market this Friday, it was trading at around 0.88 euros per share and has the second highest revaluation potential (42%) of the Spanish stock market reference behind Grifols (74%), with a target price of 1 .26 euros per share. The negative note is that their purchase recommendations have fallen to the lows of May 2020, in full confinement due to the coronavirus pandemic, up to 50%, compared to 11% who opted to sell.