The third quarter results presented by large banks will continue to reflect the impact of the rise in interest rates and its effect on the Euribor on both income and net profit. And from July to September the index to which most mortgages are referenced has moved above the 4% barrier, compensating for a slowdown in the pace of credit granting. A year ago, the indicator was positive, but it did not break the 1% barrier until September.
Analysts’ projections indicate that large banks will increase their profit in the third quarter of this year by almost 21% compared to the same period in 2022. In addition, the new quarterly numbers would be in line with those pre-established in the second quarter of the year. The calculations give a profit of 6,961.26 million euros, compared to 5,719 a year ago. In the second quarter, profits amounted to 6,807 million. And the revaluation of credit in Spain has occurred more quickly than in Europe. The average rate on current mortgages stands at 3.33%, compared to 2.27% in the eurozone for July. In fact, the price exceeded those of the eurozone for the first time in November last year, something that had not happened for 13 years. At least 60% of the mortgage portfolio of Santander, BBVA and Caixabank is a variable rate despite the commitment in recent years to fixed-rate mortgages.
Bankinter, as usual, will be the earliest entity, as it will reveal its accounts on October 19. Experts estimate that the entity led by María Dolores Dancausa will obtain a profit of 252.11 million euros in the quarter, which means improving the 159 million euros achieved for the same period in 2022. Regarding the interest margin, this is will reach 545.04 million euros in the period, which means increasing it by 36%.
For Banco Santander, the expected profit in the quarter would amount to 2,873 million euros and implies exceeding the result obtained in 2022 by 400 million euros. The interest margin will be close to 11,000 million euros. This result would allow the entity chaired by Ana Botín to reach the 10,000 million annual profits, a goal set, but not achieved. At the end of June, the bank had earned 5,241 million euros.
BBVA is also on track to surpass previous records in 2023. The bank chaired by Carlos Torres will approach 2,000 million euros in profits in the quarter, compared to the 1,092 million euros recorded in 2022. The interest margin will rise to 5,921 millions of euros. The bank will continue to count on the positive traction provided by Mexico and Spain, two regions that benefit from the rise in interest rates. Türkiye’s positive contribution is also expected.
Domestic banks benefited from the rate increase
As for domestic banking, with a strong exposure to the mortgage business, there will also be increases in net profit and income and it will be extensive for both Caixabank and Banco Sabadell. Unicaja Banco, on the other hand, would present a worse quarterly profit than in 2022, although it would increase income. For the entity headed by Gonzalo Gortázar, the profit will rise to 1,376 million euros in the quarter, compared to the profits reported for the same period of 885 million. The interest margin will be around 2,500 million euros.
For its part, Banco Sabadell could record a historic profit of 1,000 million euros at the end of the year. To achieve this, experts estimate that the bango will earn 378 million euros in the third quarter, compared to 317 million euros a year ago. As for the interest margin, it will stand at 1,187 million euros, while twelve months earlier it was 905 million.
Finally, Unicaja will present a profit slightly lower than that registered in the same period of 2022. The bank based in Malaga will report profits of 113 million euros, when a year before they stood at 133.50 million. The interest margin would climb to 330 million euros.