The Ibex 35 Technical Advisory Committee holds its ordinary September meeting this Thursday. A meeting that investors keep with low expectations, since except for surprise, no change is expected. The 2023 financial year has been a monotonous year in this sense, since except for the departure of Ferrovial to be replaced by the new company based in the Netherlands, its composition has remained intact so far this year. Beyond the names that appear in the pool with entry possibilities, the jump represents an important step for any company due to the visibility it offers, as well as the greater access to investors.
However, being part of the Spanish stock market reference does not guarantee a buoyant stock market course. Of the four companies that joined the index last year, two are listed at lower levels than they were before belonging to the Ibex 35. These are Acciona Energía and Unicaja Banco. In the case of the Acciona subsidiary, the decline since its debut is slightly over 25%, discounting the capitalization dividends, and 28% so far this year. The renewable group thus becomes the ‘red lantern’ of the selective after falling to record lows of 25 euros per share.
A downward trajectory with which more than 3,300 million of capitalization is left by the wayside, up to 8,500 million and that has led the experts who review the Stoxx 600 to announce its exclusion as of next September 18. Compared to its parent company, which is the value of the Ibex with the greatest potential (55%), the route granted by the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus to Acciona Energía is more limited (33%) due to the downward revision of growth expectations by 2025, which is one of the factors that JP Morgan warns about.
For its part, Unicaja Banco, which has lost 4.4% since the start of the year and 5.6% since its debut on the Ibex 35 at the end of last December, is another of the latest stock market debuts to register a negative balance. The tailwinds for the Malaga-based entity were cut short as a result of the financial crisis unleashed in March and since then it has experienced a limping behavior whose titles are trading at 0.98 euros. The governance crisis has also weighed on the value in the eyes of the market and Deutsche Bank analysts, above an annual balance that can collect “good figures, although fireworks are not expected.”
Sacyr and Logista, the other side of the coin
Instead, the market has blown in favor of Sacyr and Logista. The group led by Manuel Manrique returned to the selective six years later. A return well received by investors that has allowed it to accelerate and settle in the zone of maximums of five years. Although it has come to exceed three euros per share, it reaches September at around 2.86 euros. The infrastructure group that has replaced Almirall and CIE Automotive since June 2022, together with Acciona Energía, has risen in value by almost 25% since its relaunch with a stock market value that looks askance at 2,000 million. Of this amount, the group has increased its value by 250 million since January due to the jump of more than 10% that it has hit in this period.
Something more modest has been the progress of Logista. The eternal candidate of the Ibex has added 4.7% more market value since it entered to cover the PharmaMar gap, very similar to that recorded so far this year. Evolution that has led it to the all-time highs of 24.7 euros per share, although at specific moments in 2023 it has exceeded 25 euros and still has the potential to grow another 20%, according to consensus. The prospects are also endorsed by their high level of attractiveness. In fact, like Sacyr, it is among the analysts’ favorites with buy advice above 90% and no sell recommendation, while the aforementioned entity and the renewable energy group are more modest with 41% and 66 %, respectively.